Scientists find explanation for global warming pause in surface temperature rise
Scientists have found, for the first time, an explanation for the pause in the global surface warming trend – a period that stretches since 1997. The finding is based on computer modelling that takes into account the sensitivity of the temperature to solar activity. Scientists from the University of East Anglia and the Australian National University said they found a rise in the solar heating on the surface of the Earth, causing the planet’s temperature to drop from almost the surface to a depth where a natural warming event was not likely. The findings are published in the journal Nature.
Climate scientists have had a long-standing focus on the sensitivity of the temperatures of the oceans, where the warming effect can result from solar activity. However, previous computer m바카라odels have not taken into account the heat caused by the Sun.
Professor Neil MacGregor from the University of East Anglia’s School of Geosciences said: “We estimate this mechanism could account for about 10 per cent of observed surface warming. Our study is based on modelling data taken from a satellite-derived instrument that uses ocean heat content to determine sea level rise and surface temperature.”
“Since solar activity is a key factor in controlling temperature change on the Earth’s surface, our new results show that sunspots can explain up to 80 per cent of the warming we have observed since 1997,” said Professor Ian Thwaites from the University of Queensland, lead author of the study and the lead researcher on the research team.
Professor MacGregor said: “Our modelling results suggest that solar activity is responsible for더킹카지노 the surface warming phenomenon, but we also know that this is changing as we approach mid-century. By studying t바카라사이트he potential response of solar activity to future anthropogenic forcing – such as more carbon dioxide emissions and burning of fossil fuels – we are starting to gain a better understanding of the global warming mechanism.
“Given the recent record low temperature increase seen since 1997, it is critical to understand whether there is a natural cooling mechanism that can help us understand why the temperature remains at its current levels.”
Dr Mark Jacobson, from University College London, a co-author on the paper and a member of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science in the United Kingdom, said: “The surface warming slowdown of the past 50 years has been one of the most powerful climate signals ever created. The new research shows how significant climate signals can turn, giving scientists hope that a natural mechanism could be found to explain how the warming is occurring.”